Every Drought Ends in Recovery — ​September 2025 Market Update

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The latest Keeping Current Matters report for September 2025 shows a housing market that’s cooling — but not crashing.

Here’s what’s really happening right now:

💼 The Big Picture

Economists like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warn that recession risks are rising, but we’re not there yet.

• Inflation: Still above the Fed’s 2% target (hovering near 3%).

• Unemployment: Now 4.2 percent as job growth slows.

• Consumer sentiment: Two-thirds of Americans believe a recession is coming, and 74% say world events influence their financial decisions — including buying or selling a home.

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💰 Rates & Mortgage Updates

The Fed is expected to cut rates soon — Wall Street puts the odds around 91%.

Still, mortgage rates already reflect this expectation. As Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather explains:

"When the Fed announces the cut, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop significantly — it’s already priced in.”

Even so, the average mortgage payment has fallen about $250 since May, bringing a bit of relief for buyers.

🏠 Home Prices Are Stabilizing

Listing prices have flattened around $440,000 nationally.

• West & South: Slower price growth thanks to more inventory.

• Midwest & Northeast: Modest continued appreciation.

As First American’s Odeta Kushi puts it:

“The national housing market supports a natural moderation of prices — not a sharp decline.”

🔄 Every Downturn Ends in Recovery

Housing slowdowns aren’t new — and they always recover.

After the early 1980s recession, 2008, and 2020, sales and prices bounced back stronger than before.

Forecasters expect the next recovery to begin in 2026, with home prices projected to rise 6 – 17 percent by 2029.

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🧭 What This Means for You

Buyers: Builder incentives are back — 66% of builders are offering rate buy-downs, upgrades, or price cuts averaging 5% ($25,000 on a $500K home).

Sellers: Pricing right matters more than ever. Homes that show well and are priced accurately are still selling.

Everyone: Real estate moves in cycles — this cooling period sets the stage for the next growth phase.

“Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening.Only great agents can explain what’s happening.”— Keeping Current Matters

If you’d like a quick, personalized look at how these trends are affecting your local market or your home’s value, I’d be happy to help.

Let’s connect and talk strategy.